Pages

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Failures of Collective Opinions


“Nothing bound us to the firm but what had enticed many of us to apply: money and a strange belief that no other jobs in the world were worth doing…By coming to Saloman Brothers, we were doing only what every sane, money-hungry person would do.  If we were unable to buck convention in our lives, would we be able to buck convention in the market?  After all, the job market is a market.”
            The quote, written by Michael Lewis, in “Liar’s Poker,” illustrates a common flaw amongst human beings, especially those endowed with the socioeconomic resources to reach society’s upper-echelon most efficiently.  There are certain preordained paths, scripted sequences through the world that many of our most professionally mobile citizens follow blindly.  Indeed, they are the professional equivalent of sheep at best, and lemmings at worst.  I can recall my days in college, as virtually every classmate aspired to law, medicine, consulting, high finance, or some altruistic pursuit before returning to one of those four occupations or a marriage to one of their members.
            I suppose, on the surface, such a trend is not disturbing.  After all, civilization demands all of these professions, albeit in potentially lower numbers.  However, consider the great thoughts, era-defining inventions, and paradigm-shifting philosophies.  Each stemmed from an individual utterly disinterested in the prevailing sentiments of the age hell-bent on charting their own course.  In fact, “groupthink,” the phenomenon in which clusters of the like-minded congregate and mutually reinforce their own ideas until the very notion of the existence of any alternative becomes foreign, led to the subprime collapse.  Mass agreement with minimal dissent is a recipe for mediocrity at best and stagnation at worst.  Of course, assurance that a deviant path is the correct one is a cognitive process shared by innovators, entrepreneurs, and horrifically brutal dictatorships. 
            Bucking convention is a frightening proposition, if only because failure is accompanied by the question, “what if I had just done what everyone else was doing?”  Much like a coach who punts on 4th and 1, knowing that a subsequent defeat will be blamed on his players, but a loss following a deviant play-call will be assigned to the coach himself, there is a great deal of comfort and defensibility in simply riding with the herd.  Conversely, there is very little glory in so doing.
            Perhaps, as a species, we are simply risk-averse in a manner which is truly disadvantageous.  This seems odd in that our global exploration requires an intrepid spirit inconsistent with risk-aversion.  Our greatest figures are almost without exception, exceedingly willing to put great amounts of emotional, monetary, and physical in play for their cause.  Though “greatness,” despite its nebulous definition seems to demand a daring nature, survival may not.  Evolution would seem to favor those willing to maximize the odds of sending their genetic material onward – and that would seem consistent with significant reluctance to take risks.  Yet, as a species as a whole, risk-taking by a substantial segment seems to generate massive gains…though the risk taker often suffers on an individual level.  Perhaps what is ingrained by evolution for individuals is counter-productive for the collective accomplishment of the species?
Just another reason to deviate…

No comments:

Post a Comment